MVN - Most Valuable Network

Random Thoughts

Tim Wakefield/ Signonsandiego.com

Not much going on around the news in Boston or the baseball world this week, so instead I’ll give you some random thoughts floating around the noggin on this Thursday night:

 - As I wrote about last month, I would vote for Mark McGwire in the Hall of Fame for a few reasons. One, steroid policy was not nearly as strict or frowned upon in the late 90s when McGwire supposedly took these steroids to help fuel his ride to the home run record. We may very well discover in the years that follow that the wide majority of players from that era were juicing and Mark will just be another face in the crowd. I actually don’t entirely blame McGwire for taking any form of steroids during that time. It may be a code of conduct violation, but the fact is, baseball just turned away from the issue back then for their sports return to success and many of Mark’s peers were experimenting with these steroids. They wouldn’t be caught, anyway. Plus, the man never failed a drug test. The whole process is a joke anyway, we should just let Gammons decide who’s in the Hall. Now who would be opposed to that?

 - This may be far-fetched, but what about throwing Tim Wakefield into the bullpen to start the season and see what happens? Sure he’s finishing his career and wants to be a starter, but maybe Tito and management can convince the team-first Wakefield that the mix of the knuckleball in a weak bullpen will prove to be a valuable addition, at least temporarily. With the knuckle, Wake can make the transition easily and he has a lot of experience working as a closer or setup man. Tavarez, Snyder or Pineiro would then rotate as our #5 starter. I think it could be worth a shot.

- I’m very pleased with the current situation of the Red Sox farm system. While Theo has his faults, he continues to change the past habits of Sox ownership and value the farm system as a key to a winning future. Right now, Jacoby Ellsbury is our top prospect and could end up being another Johnny Damon at some point in his career. Clay Buccholz projects to be a #2 starter in the bigs by 2008 or 2009. I’ve heard nothing but glowing reviews over the progress of Michael Bowden and the filthy Daniel Bard this winter, as well. And we’ll likely see guys like Bryce Cox, George Kottaras and Edgar Martinez in the big leagues very soon. For a team with such a high payroll and a club that usually finishes near the top of the league, a top 15 (10?) farm system is something to be proud of.

 - The best opening day lineup, in my opinion, is: 1) Lugo, 2) Youkilis, 3) Ortiz, 4) Ramirez, 5) Drew, 6) Lowell, 7) Varitek, 8) Crisp, 9) Pedroia. Now we won’t have to fuss over valuing speed or on- base at the top of the lineup because the Red Sox have both: the stolen base, first to third capabilities of Lugo leading off and the on- base prowess of Kevin Youkilis right in front of Ortiz and Manny. Youkilis and Lugo will easily be in the running for the top 10 in runs scored in 2007. After that, Drew might be the best #5 hitter in baseball when healthy. Lowell fits perfectly in the 6 spot with his doubles, Varitek should rebound in #7, and Crisp gets most of the pressure off of him at #8. Pedroia will struggle early with the bat, but I’ve heard glowing reports about his glove and hands at second base and give the Sox much more range than Mark Loretta.

- In order, the guys we need the most improvement from this season: 1) Josh Beckett, 2) Jason Varitek, 3) Coco Crisp. Beckett and Crisp experienced tumultuous first seasons in Boston, which is difficult for any player, and I have all the confidence in the world they will improve. If Beckett finds an effective breaking ball/changeup to go along with his power pitches, surely the HR rate and ERA will drop significantly. He’s also now a veteran in the AL. It was blatantly obvious Coco Crisp was hurt all of last season and could not swing or grip the bat properly with his thumb not fully healed. For 2007 it will be healed, and expect his numbers in Cleveland to translate next year in the #8 hole. What a luxury. And Jason Varitek will too be 100% for spring training after an assortment of injuries that was first reported in late April. I know all of the outstanding work and clubhouse leadership he brings to the team is invaluable, but his hitting numbers must improve for this contract to not be considered a minor mistake.

- What an unbelievable lift it will be to have the slugger, Mr. Wily Mo Pena, off the bench for the Sox in 2007. We can fit in the 24 year old at the first backup slot for first base and all three outfield positions on any given night. Many Red Sox fans feel that Pena is just about to hit his full potential as a player and blossom into a guy putting up monstrous numbers. They say putting him on the bench would be wasting talent and production. I tend to disagree. We all know over the course of the baseball season some injury will occur, some trade will happen, or something that all of a sudden catapults Pena into a starting gig. Plus, at the primary backup at four main positions, he’ll see his fair share of AB’s. There’s no doubt in my mind. His progression this season, hopefully with glimpses of a huge future, will be one of the things I’m most looking forward to this upcoming year.

- Folks, spring training is not that far away. I’m not sure of the exact date but it’s almost a month until pitchers and catchers report. Let’s try to get through the dog days of January with no real baseball news of significance with the Sox and look forward to a promising season ahead. If we can find some hint of a closer, either internally or externally (still time).

Joel Pineiro - AP Photo/Ed Zurga

25-35 saves for Pineiro?

You probably noticed that Fire Brand has something new - polls. The first poll is now closed, and the question was “How many games will Joel Pineiro save?”

The results are:

25-35, but be an average closer
39% of all votes
Maybe ten, because he’ll flame out
28% of all votes
None, he won’t start as a closer
23% of all votes
Be one of the better closers in the game
10% of all votes

In a nutshell, we’re not expecting much out of Pineiro. I voted for “25-35, but be an average closer” which actually won the vote (though by not much, and lost if you combine the “maybe ten” and “none” votess) because that’s essentially what will happen if Pineiro pitches as a closer the entire season, despite the ERA. In 2004, a pitcher saved 35 games while pitching a 7.11 ERA. That pitcher is Shawn Chacon. It just goes to show you how easy saves are to come by. He blew nine of those saves, giving him a 80 percent success rate and a SIP of 0.55.

The majority of the people feel that Pineiro can be an average closer and save 25-35 games. There were four people tied with 24 saves in 2006 (nobody had 25). They were: Takashi Saito of the Dodgers, Mike Gonzalez of the Pirates, Derrick Turnbow of the Brewers and Ryan Dempster of the Cubs. Their ERA’s in order: 2.07, 2.17, 6.87, 4.80. The next person with less than 30 saves was Chad Cordero, who finished with a 3.19 ERA. Jonathan Papelbon finished with exactly 35 saves and a 0.92 ERA. In between Papelbon and Cordero (the list is here) were eight people, and here’s how their ERAs finished from Papelbon to Cordero: 3.34, 1.80, 2.67, 3.55, 2.73, 5.28 (Brad Lidge), 2.11, 3.44.

The highest ERA belonged to Derrick Turnbow, who clearly lost his job. The next highest ERA was Brad Lidge, who temporarily lost his job before regaining it. You then have Dempster, who closed all year but is not exactly held in the highest esteem of Cubs fans. He did, nonetheless, notch 24 saves. The next highest ERA belonged to Jason Isringhausen and Brian Fuentes. The last person over 3.00 was Tom Gordon.

Essentially, we’re looking for Joel Pineiro to be Jason Isringhausen - the 2006 Isringhausen, not the 2001-2005 Isringhausen. If Pineiro can pull up 35 saves with an ERA around 3.50, I’ll be happy. For the record, Isringhausen blew four saves and went 4-8.

Eric Karabell penned a lengthy article on the Pineiro fantasy implications the other day. It’s Insider only, but here are a few juicy pieces:

Pineiro does throw hard, he’s still relatively young (only 28), and even if there was room for him in the rotation, does he deserve the chance? He’s failed as a starter the last two seasons, and in a sweet pitcher’s park and sans pressure. You know who else couldn’t hack it every fifth day in nice ballparks? Eric Gagne couldn’t stick in the Dodgers’ top five, and was moved to the bullpen by necessity, because of health and the fact he was out of chances to start. Joe Nathan was hardly a giant when the Giants asked him to start. He stunk. Then he had one terrific middle relief season there and got thrown into the Francisco Liriano-Boof Bonser-A.J. Pierzynski deal and has been arguably baseball’s best closer since then. Nobody thought moving these guys to the ninth inning would make them Cy Young caliber.

There is no blueprint for what a closer needs to save games, other than, obviously and in general, they need the ball with a lead of three runs or fewer in the ninth inning. Don’t even look at Pineiro’s 2006 stats. They tell us little. I looked, of course, and saw that his ERA as a starter was two runs higher than it was in relief, and that his strikeout rate was solid when moved to the bullpen. Batters hit only .213 off him when he was relieving, though it’s a small sample size. But nothing has truly prepared this guy to close. Pitching in the sixth inning while losing 90 games in Seattle is not the same as pitching in the ninth inning at Fenway or Yankee Stadium, with a man on base, tens of thousands of angry, demanding fans yelling at you and someone like Derek Jeter at the plate. There’s pressure. Not everyone can close, even those with a great arm and nasty stuff. If that was the case, Kyle Farnsworth might be Lee Smith. He’s not. Joe Borowski has multiple big save seasons. This is about opportunity.

Pineiro was once a very highly regarded pitcher, and he won 16 games in 2003 with a 3.78 ERA and 151 strikeouts. His 2004 was cut short by an elbow injury, and his shoulder was hurt early in 2005. Since then he’s been among the most hittable pitchers in the game, and with a low strikeout rate. But when Pineiro went to the bullpen last year, he was better. In his words, “it was something where I came in and gave it all I had for one inning. … I dropped down my arm angle a little bit, the ball had more movement. I was very excited about it.” Kudos to the Sox for doing their homework.

Does this make me excited? No. It doesn’t at all. It does ease my concerns a bit. Even if Pineiro is average, won’t that help us? Not only have we not had many “average” relievers in a while, but Pineiro being “average” will allow someone else to step in if we can find an improvement, as Tristan Cockcroft notes on that page:

If he starts slowly, I expect another trade like the one for Byung-Hyun Kim in 2003. Or, perhaps Craig Hansen starts strong in a setup role and gets promoted. Why isn’t that being called as likely a possibility as Pineiro succeeding in the closer spot?

Why isn’t it, indeed. A trade is likely. Hansen or Manny Delcarmen moving into the slot is likely.

The only thing guaranteed right now is that Pineiro has the inside track to closing. If he bombs, we switch him out immediately. We’re not beholden to a guy not expected to succeed who is in his first year of relieving. Even the organization isn’t turning cartwheels. If he’s average, we can either leave him there or easily justify removing him from the spot. If he excels, great.

I simply don’t see anything to lose here. I do not see Pineiro as another Rudy Seanez. If Pineiro bombs, he will not continue getting chances.

In other news, Jim Rice didn’t make the Hall of Fame. I’m hearing that now 2008 is his best year! He won’t have Ripken or Gwynn to contend with, people will be upset over Bonds breaking the record, casting even more positive light on Rice, and he’ll be in his last gasps to get elected by the writers … I’ll believe it when I see it.

J.D. Drew’s contract apparently will be done soon. Really? It was going to be done soon on November 29th.

A new poll up there, folks. Vote on it! Interesting question, too. When will Jacoby Ellsbury make his major league debut? Think about it.

Red Sox Redux

George Widman, AP

The disappointing collapse of such a promising Red Sox team last year hardly seems like a bright spot. Jon Lester, David Ortiz and even Peter Gammons had health scares that put them in the hospital. In fact, the entire team became so ravaged with injury that Julian Tavarez was at one point our staff ace and Kevin Youkilis was at one point our cleanup hitter. The frustration of the 2006 season could be personified almost perfectly by a 5 game series against the Yankees in August. During that series the Red Sox pitching completely collapsed as Red Sox fans watched the team’s playoff hopes end in their own ballpark. It was in fact the biggest heartbreak that I, as a Red Sox fan, have endured since the 2003 ALCS. However, it did set into motion actions that will change the course of the Red Sox franchise for years to come. And just like the 2003 season, 2006 may have set the table for a year to celebrate. In fact, 2006 may have encouraged developments that could make the Red Sox one of the most powerful forces in baseball for years to come.

Fortunately, it wasn’t all disappointments that laid the groundwork for the 2007 season. Perhaps the most important developments of 2006 were the statements made by youngsters Jonathan Papelbon and Kevin Youkilis. Both young players proved not only that they could play at the major league level, but that they could be some of the most valuable players on a major league team. Last year also brought about the continued development of Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Dustin Pedroia and Craig Hansen, all of which are products of the Red Sox farm system who will be counted on in 2007. Epstein’s revitalization of the Red Sox minor league system is finally starting to pay it’s dividends. The Red Sox don’t have the best system in baseball, but they do have a remarkable knack for refilling their system with top level prospects. Somehow, they’re always able to replace prospects that have either already reached the majors or were used in a trade. Unlike Red Sox teams of previous years, this Red Sox team will be receiving trade deadline reinforcements from within the organization as well as from without. Theo Epstein’s revitalization of the Red Sox farm system will be an invaluable tool in the revitalization of the Red Sox themselves.

The heart and soul of the Red Sox over the next few years will be their very good, young pitching staff. With the additions of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jonathan Papelbon to the rotation the Red Sox will now have a trio of exciting 26 year old starters. Jonathan Lester, who will turn 23 next year will give the Red Sox 4 good, young starters under contract for at least the next 3 years. The young pitching depth doesn’t stop there though. The Red Sox also have a few young relief pitchers who will likely play key roles on the team next year. The first of which is Manny Delcarmen who looks to start the 2007 season in the majors. His final line of last year may not look that impressive but keep in mind that was battling injury. He was taking on a larger workload than he’s used to as well. He had an ERA of 3.66 with 29 strikeouts and 8 walks in his first 32 innings last year before suffering from a sore thumb. Delcarmen’s continued development in 2007 will be a large factor in either the success or failure of the Boston bullpen. He has had rather impressive control throughout his career and has the ability to strike out a batter an inning in the majors, as he did when he was first called up in 2005. If he’s got the gut for it he has the stuff to be a great setup man.

The Red Sox also have an electric arm in the former St. John’s closer, Craig Hansen. To many of you he may not be anything more than an over hyped prospect who doesn’t have the mental makeup for the majors. If you’re of that opinion, I urge you to reserve judgment for at least a bit longer. Hansen will be only 23 years old next year and was rushed to the majors far too fast. He first reached the majors in 2005, the year he was drafted. He hadn’t even pitched 12 innings in the minors, none at the AAA level. He skipped the A level but has put up an ERA of 0.44 in AA while allowing only 5 walks and striking out 22 in 20.2 innings. Such a successful transition to the AA level is usually an indication of a pitcher capable of transitioning to the majors. Hansen will start the season in AAA where he had an ERA of 2.75 last year. He’s yet to pitch 60 innings in the minors and will attempt to get his ERA back down below 2 before being promoted to the majors in 2007. With Hansen’s fastball in the high-nineties, his hard slider and his closer experience in college he could make for an interesting call-up next year.

Just as fortunate is that the Red Sox will again be returning the best 1-2 offensive punch in baseball. Both David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez have a knack for both production and the big hit. It would be hard such quality, clutch batters on any other team. The Red Sox had the two big bats last year as well but now have a lineup that will be more balanced and fast than any other Red Sox lineup of recent memory. The Red Sox shouldn’t be as sluggish on the bases as they have been in the past. Their lineup will now feature Lugo, Drew, Crisp and Pedroia. Drew should also offer some protection for Manny. A healthy Varitek and Crisp could also have a large impact on the lineup next year. The Red Sox have made significant improvements in both their pitching and offense. Many people have criticized the front office for spending so much money this offseason. While they have taken some risks on long term deals, they’ve also locked up key players who should be able to help the team play at a high level for many years to come.

With a championship already in hand this decade, perhaps John Henry and Co. are looking to return the Red Sox to the status they enjoyed early in the last century. They were in fact baseball’s original dynasty winning a third of the first 15 World Series championships. If I made such a comparison just years ago I’d probably sound crazy. Boy, how things have changed. Many people have said that the Red Sox identity has been lost this offseason and they’re right. These are not the lovable losers that the Red Sox once were. They’re a far cry from the Red Sox of 2004 as well, with most of that team having left. Still, it’s hard not to become just as excited about the new Red Sox. Just thinking about next year you can almost see Matsuzaka taking the mound in Kansas City. You can almost hear the Fenway crowd as the new bolstered offense rounds the bases. With the strange mildness of this winter, I’ve found myself thinking how much the air smells more like October than it does January. I can’t help notice the appropriateness of the Japanese flag and it’s rising sun as a symbol for the new Red Sox. And as Japanese fans come to Fenway Park to proudly raise their red flags, perhaps the Red Sox will be raising a red banner of their own in October. It’s an exciting time to be a Red Sox fan.

A God of More Than Walks

The Boston Globe

You can tell a lot about a person by who their favorite player is. So what better way to introduce myself than to make the case for mine? I was recently invited to be the most recent member of the Fire Brand staff. I’m excited about the opportunity and am looking forward to developing a relationship with the site’s readers. I get a lot of enjoyment out of interacting with readers so don’t be bashful. I’d spend a little more time introducing myself but that will have to wait for later. For now, I’m eager to role my sleeves up and get down to business.

If the title (or the big picture) didn’t clue you in already, my favorite Red Sox player right now is Kevin Youkilis. He played in his first major league game in Toronto on May 15th of 2004. I don’t make it to many Red Sox games, since I live around 6 hours from Boston. I did however make two trips to see the Red Sox in 2004 and a May trip to the then named Skydome was one of them. I sat on the third base side of the field and was disappointed that I wouldn’t be watching Bill Mueller, who was out with an injury. I did however get to see a then 25-year old Youkilis in his major league debut. He did not disappoint. In the fourth inning, Youkilis came up to bat against Cy Young winner Pat Hentgen. It was then that Youk recorded his first career hit, a 402-foot home run into the left field stands. Even more memorable than the shot however was what he did after he rounded the bases. Given that it was Youk’s major league debut, the players in the dugout hazed him a little bit by pretending they didn’t see the home run. They simply sat there on the bench. Youkilis didn’t miss a beat. He just smiled as he gave air high-fives to imaginary teammates waiting for him on the steps. It was one of the more humorous things I’ve ever witnessed a Red Sox player do during a game. Youkilis was later named the Rookie of the Month.

Youk’s story started well before he ever made the majors, though. He became somewhat of a household name among baseball fans when he was named the Greek God of Walks in Billy Beane’s Moneyball. Youkilis isn’t at all Greek but he did earn the second half of the name. He posted OBP’s of .512 in 59 games at A Lowell and .487 in 94 games at AA Portland. In 2001 he was the New York-Penn League player of the year, in 2002 he rose through 3 minor league levels and in 2003 he got on base in 71 consecutive games, tying a minor league record. Youkilis has been successful at every level of competition he’s ever been in. In college he was an All-American twice at the University of Cincinnati. Even before that he won an AAU National Championship at Sycamore High School. In the simplest of terms, winning’s in his blood.

In fact, it could be argued he is the most underrated player on the entire team. Everyone knows what an on-base machine Youkilis is. Not everyone knows however, what a machine he is in many other facets of the game. In the 2007 Bill James Handbook, Bill James rates baserunner’s abilities on a plus and minus scale. Some of the worst baserunners on the Red Sox were as you may have guessed, Manny Ramirez (-11) and Mike Lowell (-14). Two of the better baserunners last year, as you also may have guessed, were Lugo (+9) and Crisp (+10). The best baserunner last year however, as I doubt anyone would have guessed, was Kevin Youkilis at +11. How often and how far a player advances on the basepaths as well as how often they create outs on the basepaths are all factored into Bill James’ ratings. These things are obviously dependent quite a bit on speed. The baserunning skills of Youkilis however were so good last year that he even beat out players such as Lugo and Crisp with significantly more speed. It was almost all baserunning instincts and intelligence that allowed Youkilis to lead all Red Sox baserunners in Bill James’ ratings last year.

Youk was more than good at preventing the opposing team from getting on base as well. In the new Bill James handbook one can find similar defensive ratings. Bill James’ comprehensive system for generating such ratings looks at every single ball put into play. It then rates how hard the ball was hit, on what kind of line of trajectory the ball was hit and where the ball landed. A player is given a positive point for every type of play they made in that year that the average player at that position would not make. For every play a fielder does not make that the average player at the same position would make, a player receives a negative point. By this system, Kevin Youkilis was rated the third best defensive first baseman in baseball last year. His score of +10 was bested by only Albert Pujols (+19) and Doug Mientkiewicz (+16). In only his first year at first base, Youkilis somehow managed to be one of the best first basemen in the league. He allowed only 5 errors all season and ranked in the top 10 in RF.

Just in case you aren’t convinced yet, here’s another skill that Youkilis doesn’t get a lot of credit for. Now everybody knows that David Ortiz had quite a bit of walk off hits last year (5 to be exact). I doubt even the most die hard of Red Sox fans remember however the role that Youkilis played in the majority of those walk-off hits. Youkilis allowed Ortiz to push the winning run across the plate in 3 of his 5 walk-off hits be either getting on base or moving the runner into scoring position. Youkilis also had a game winning hit of his own in the 9th inning last year. In a June 3rd match up between Curt Schilling and Kenny Rogers, Kevin Youkilis was the hero. Down a run in the 9th with one runner on and 2 out, Youkilis turned a Todd Jones pitch right around and planted it into the bullpen. Strangely enough, I was at that game as well, again on the third base side.

If you take a quick look at Youk’s situational statistics, you’ll probably be surprised at what you find. Once runners get on base, his batting average goes up from .243 to .335 and his OPS increases from .711 to .953. With runners in scoring position that OPS goes up a tiny bit more. Most impressive however is that in 64 at bats last year with 2 outs and a runner in scoring position, Youkilis got on base more than half the time. He hit a staggering .375/.524/.656 in 64 at bats. Youk’s one of the smartest hitters on our team. His production when it mattered most was enough to earn him 22 win shares last year. That gave him the third highest total on the team last year and put him just behind David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez who each had 27 win shares. The best part is, Youkilis also cost us a mere fraction of what either of those players made last year. Not a single player on the team made less money than Youkilis last year. While being one of the most productive and well-rounded players on the team last year he only made the league minimum. Those of you looking for a blue collar dirt dog in the wake of Trot Nixon’s absence may not have to look all that hard.

What the?

Jim Rice - Baseball Almanac

UPDATE: Fire Brand now has polls! Look over on the right and vote!

8:30 AM: I don’t know what happened, but the post that I had slated to post today completely disappeared. I’ll attempt to rewrite as much as I can over the course of the day and add some notes that I want to talk about, but for now I have to leave and get to work.

10:00 AM: Okay, I’m somewhat situated at work. One of the things I wanted to talk about was Jim Rice, who may make the Hall of Fame tomorrow. Rice, who received 64.8 percent of the votes last year, seemed to have had his best shot pass him in 2006. However, his best shot may very well be this year. The great crop of Hall of Famers has yet to really materialize like we all thought it would before the steroid issue busted into the fore-front. The two locks are Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken, Jr. We all know this, but now the comparison of Mark McGwire and Jim Rice has really brought Rice out into the light. I’m not going to get into Rice’s candidacy, as Jim Rice for the Hall of Fame web site does a great job, as do the Red Sox.

I think Jim Rice should join Gwynn and Ripken in the Hall of Fame. He was an absolutely dominating hitter, and while I regret not being able to witness his exploits myself, I really have to wonder how he’d be portrayed if he had a winning attitude. Was he the David Ortiz of the mid-1970s to mid-1980s with an Albert Belle attitude? Perhaps so. The issue here is that the steroid issue is still fresh in the minds of many. Last year, the steroid outrage was all the rage, and Jim Rice saw a boost in candidacy. However, this year the steroid issue is prevalent, but has progressed past the point of rage and into rationality. Rice now has a candidate to measure up against: Mark McGwire. If he can’t get in after matching up with Mark McGwire in the post-steroids aftermath environment we are in, I doubt he will ever get in. Then again, many said 2006 was Rice’s best chance. We’ll see.

Shane, hopefully this keeps you off the streets!

One more note: The only thing I dislike about this steroid outrage is the free pass the NFL gets, while the MLB doesn’t. Steroids in baseball can kill your career. In the NFL, it gets you elected to the Pro Bowl.

Next up: talking about J.D. Drew and Roger Clemens.

12:00 PM: November 29th. That was the day that I posted on this web site saying that J.D. Drew was going to sign with the Boston Red Sox. It’s January 8th, and he’s still not on the Red Sox roster. This is starting to get a bit concerning. Both sides are adamant that a deal has been reached, but the Red Sox are looking for a way to protect themselves against Drew’s balky shoulder. Apparently, they’re either trying to reduce the amount of guaranteed money by changing some of the money ($15 million of the guaranteed $70, to be exact) into incentives that Drew can easily attain should he remain healthy. Other reports have less guaranteed years with vesting options built in. Either way, the magnitude of silence on both sides of the deal (agent Scott Boras represents Drew) and the length of how long this deal has been in the works for is concerning. I have to wonder if this is exactly why Trot Nixon isn’t inking any contracts yet. If Drew falls through, I have no doubt the Red Sox would tender an offer to Trot Nixon.

I think at this point, we need to severely evaluate if J.D. Drew should be a Red Sox or not. I truly feel Drew would be an amazing complement to the Red Sox and would dramatically upgrade the team’s dynamics on offense, defense and speed. However, if Drew cannot seem to do that because of serious questions from his shoulder, I would also encourage the Red Sox to say “no thanks” and move on. Wily Mo Pena is maturing. David Murphy has packed on pounds. Brandon Moss is climbing up the ladder. Jacoby Ellsbury is about to knock on the door. Trot Nixon is still available, but is the final viable option unless one includes Cliff Floyd, but he’s a left-fielder and even more injury-prone than Drew. A decision needs to be reached soon.

The Red Sox are still very much interested in Roger Clemens, says both John Henry and the agent for Clemens. Assuming Clemens does not make his decision until around June 1st, this could benefit the Red Sox greatly. We will have gone through two full months of the baseball season, which will allow us to gauge who is working out, who is not working out, and who is hurt. Is Joel Pineiro stinking it up while Jonathan Papelbon is doing just fine in the rotation? Make Papelbon the closer, cut Pineiro, sign Clemens. Is the bullpen in disarray due to the lack of a viable longman? Move Tim Wakefield into the bullpen, get rid of the worst reliever, sign Clemens. Waiting until June does nothing to harm the Red Sox’s chances to gain Clemens. I personally think it actually increases the chances. Best case scenario? The Red Sox do a full-court press for Clemens despite no injury issues and everyone doing great on the pitching side of the Red Sox. Inking Clemens, dealing a reliever to fill a need on the hitting side or obtaining minor leaguers. One thing is for sure: the Red Sox want Clemens just as much as the Yankees want him. Remember, it was the Red Sox that wined and dined Clemens last year, not the Yankees. The Yankees will unquestionably be doing the wining and dining this year because right now, their rotation does not strike fear into me at all, and if it stands as it currently is, they’re asking for a 2006 Red Sox repeat of ineffectiveness and injuries derailing the rotation. However, all reports seem to be that Clemens regretted signing with the Astros last year and not the Red Sox. Maybe he doesn’t regret it anymore, but there were many whispers that he did regret it over the course of last season.

The Red Sox can offer Clemens exactly what he wants. They can offer money. They offer a chance at the World Series along with three of the youngest pitching phenoms on the planet: Beckett and Papelbon, both clones of Clemens and Matsuzaka, apparently the best pitcher in the world. The rotation offers old friend Tim Wakefield and protégé Curt Schilling whose career was irrevocably altered by a run-in with Roger Clemens. The Red Sox offer the best one-two punch in the game of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. It offers widely respected catcher Jason Varitek. Signing with the Red Sox offers Clemens the ability to come full-circle, something that apparently was a huge selling point for him last year. And what else it offers? It offers him his #21 back with a guarantee that it will be retired. For those that don’t know, the Red Sox policy on retired numbers is that the player must be in the Hall of Fame, spend the majority of his career with the Red Sox, and end his career with the Red Sox. The old regime danced around the previous rule by hiring Carlton Fisk as an assistant in the front office right before retiring his number, but all signs since have pointed to the new ownership sticking to the rules, although it would be a shame if Johnny Pesky’s #6 was not retired. The Red Sox can dance around retiring Pesky’s number because he only held #6 officially for one year as a player and four years as a coach before moving to #22 for two years as manager and #35 for five years as a coach and manager, even though he currently suits up as #6 after it had been worn by six other players since he last wore it officially in 1984 (last was Gary Gaetti in 2000).

I got off-track there, but the point is that the Red Sox can offer Clemens a lot. A contending team in a big market where he just happened to start and spend the majority of his year, money, a guarantee of his number being retired … there’s a lot here to appeal to Clemens, and I’m quite positive that the end result will be Clemens going to Boston if the money is there, unless the Astros somehow are contending (which they probably won’t be, as a result of their stupid decision not to pay Andy Pettitte two million more dollars). Only time will tell.

There. All caught up. You’ll hear from Mike, the new Fire Brand writer, tomorrow!