MVN - Most Valuable Network

The Future

Each year, various baseball writers, bloggers, and websites rank prospects, and now that most of the 2007 lists are out, I thought I’d compile rankings for the Sox’ youngsters. Combining the rankings of Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, and Top Prospect Alert (the most reputable sources), below are the Sox’ top prospects for 2007. I’ve only included players who received a vote from more than one of the individual lists.

Furthermore, it’s worth noting that I had to fudge things a little bit: because some of the rankings were done before the Brandon McCarthy and/or Freddy Garcia trades, they didn’t really reflect the true overall picture. I attempted to remedy this by guessing where each list would include the missing players, using the rankings of other teams or those from previous years. This admittedly isn’t the greatest method, but I didn’t really have any other options.

Lastly, some notes about the stats below. If a player spent time at more than one level, I combined the stats, unless the vast majority of his time was spent in one place, in which case I just went with those stats. If a player’s birthday falls during the baseball season, I either went with the age he will be for most of 2007, or in a few cases listed both to emphasize that he’ll spend a significant amount of time at each age. In general, I picked the stats most useful in projecting future performance.

Without further ado, here they are:

1. John Danks, LHP

Average Ranking:1.5
Age During 2007: 22
Minor League Career Stats: 4.20 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.27 K/9, 1.01 HR/9, 3.32 BB/9
2006 Stats: 4.24 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 1.41 HR/9, 3.6 BB/9 at AA/AAA
Notes: Good curveball, and decent changeup. Gets hit hard upon each promotion, but then tends to settle down.

2. Ryan Sweeney, CF/RF

Average Ranking: 2
Age During 2007: 22
Minor League Career Stats: .295/.352/.402, 53% SB rate
2006 Stats: .296/.350/.452, 13 HR, 7 SB (50%) at AAA
Notes: According to Baseball America, the best hitter for average and the best defensive outfielder among Sox prospects. His power has developed slowly, and might plateau at only a medicore level, something that could be mitigated to a large extent if he proves he can stay in centerfield.

3. Josh Fields, 3B

Average Ranking: 2.75
Age During 2007: 25
Minor League Career Stats: .279/.354/.458, 76% SB rate
2006 Stats: .305/.379/.515, 19 HR, 28 SB (85%) at AAA
Notes: Strikeouts are still (and may always) be a bit of a problem, but has turned himself into a well-rounded player. 2006 proved a lot for him.
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4. Gio Gonzalez, LHP

Average Ranking: 4
Age During 2007: 21
Minor League Career Stats: 3.63 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.31 K/9, 0.87 HR/9, 3.92 BB/9
2006 Stats: 4.66 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 9.66 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.71 BB/9 at AA
Notes: Terrific curveball, but has serious control issues. Still quite young, and left-handed.
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5. Lance Broadway, RHP

Average Ranking: 5.25
Age During 2007: 23
Minor League Career Stats: 3.22 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.32 K/9, 0.59 HR/9, 2.55 BB/9
2006 Stats: 2.74 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 6.47 K/9, 0.58 HR/9, 2.33 BB/9 at AA
Notes: Control pitcher without great stuff. Maintains his pitches deep into games, and doesn’t walk many batters. If everything goes right for him, he could be a right-handed Mark Buehrle. If not, at best a 4th or 5th starter.

6. Charlie Haeger, RHP

Average Ranking: 6.75
Age During 2007: 23
Minor League Career Stats: 3.69 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 5.91 K/9, 0.42 HR/9, 4.1 BB/9
2006 Stats: 3.07 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 6.88 K/9, 0.48 HR/9, 4.13 BB/9 at AAA
Notes: Like all knuckleballers, extremely difficult to predict long-term (or short-term, for that matter). Walks batters (it comes with the territory), but almost never gives up the long ball.
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7. Kyle McCulloch, RHP

Average Ranking: 7.25
Age During 2007: 22
Minor League Career Stats: 3.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.55 K/9, 8.81 HR/9, 3.78 BB/9
2006 Stats: 3.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.55 K/9, 8.81 HR/9, 3.78 BB/9 at Rookie/A+
Notes: Almost exactly like Broadway, but nearly two years younger and with a terrific changeup.
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8. Aaron Cunningham, LF

Average Ranking: 8.25
Age During 2007: 21
Minor League Career Stats: .301/.381/.460, 63% SB rate
2006 Stats: .305/.386/.496, 11 HR, 19 SB (66%) at A
Notes: Played all three outfield spots in 2006, but is not considered a good fielder and will almost certainly end up in left-field. However, does have the raw tools to play center, so perhaps could put things together and have a higher value.
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9. Chris Carter, 1B

Average Ranking: 10
Age During 2007: 20
Minor League Career Stats: .277/.363/.506, 54 % SB rate
2006 Stats: .273/.373/.522, 16 HR, 4 SB (50%) at Rookie/A
Notes: Huge (6′4″, 220) slugger with immense power. Has played some third base, but will no doubt end up as a full-time first-baseman, and not a good one at that.
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10. Nick Masset, RHP

Average Ranking: 11.5
Age During 2007: 24/25 (May 17)
Minor League Career Stats: 4.53 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.37 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.25 BB/9
2006 Stats: 3.67 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.19 K/9, 0.31 HR/9, 3.75 BB/9 at AA/AAA
Notes: Throws hard, with heavy sink on his fastball. Has trouble against lefties. Started for much of his time in the majors, but switched to relief mid-2006.
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11. Matt Long, RHP

Average Ranking: 14.25
Age During 2007: 23
Minor League Career Stats: 8.13 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 5.42 K/9, 1.36 HR/9, 3.52 BB/9
2006 Stats: 8.02 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 5.35 K/9, 1.34 HR/9, 3.48 BB/9 at A
Notes: Throws very hard, but that hasn’t translated into success yet.

12. Adam Russell, RHP

Average Ranking: 18
Age During 2007: 24
Minor League Career Stats: 3.61 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 6.28 K/9, 0.69 HR/9, 3.83 BB/9
2006 Stats: 3.43 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 6.49 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.49 BB/9 at A+/AA
Notes: “Needs better secondary stuff,” according to John Sickels.
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13. Lucas Harrell, RHP

Average Ranking: 18.75
Age During 2007: 21/22 (June 3)
Minor League Career Stats: 3.82 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.11 K/9, 0.54 HR/9, 5.12 BB/9
2006 Stats: 2.45 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.87 K/9, 0.29 HR/9, 4.32 BB/9 at A+
Notes: Ditto. Good fastball, but little else.

Overall Impressions

Whereas as recently as 2001 Baseball America rated the Sox’ minor league system as the best in the majors, now its clearly mediocre (rated 14th this past year). The system is the 13th youngest in baseball (or 18th oldest, depending on how you look at it), and it is generally bereft of top-level talent. The list above is pitcher-heavy, which is fitting: the system lacks many decent position player prospects. Going for pitching, as Kenny and Co. have done, could pay off big, but pitching prospects (if there even is such a thing) do not tend to see their potential realized even remotely as often as position players do, so it’s a big bet. And even the Sox’ best prospects aren’t superstar caliber. John Sickels writes, “This system has thinned out considerably, as even the best prospects have a questionmark or two, with lack of positional depth a serious issue.” While trades have played a role in gutting the system, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus thinks the team’s drafting strategy is even more to blame: “The White Sox system is a bad one, as the drop off in talent after the first five prospects is sizeable. While Kenny Williams’ trading ways have played a factor, some of the most boring drafts in recent memory play a larger one.” Given the state of the system, the Sox would be wise to spend their draft picks in upcoming years on position players with high ceilings.

One More SCUD; Another Move Coming?

The Sox parted ways with catcher Chris Stewart today, shipping him to the Rangers for flame-throwing youngster John Lujan. Giving up Stewart isn’t much of a loss; although he was reportedly excellent with the glove, his career minor league hitting line of .252/.317/.364 left a lot to be desired. Furthermore, he’ll turn 25 next month, making him a fringe prospect at best. Lastly, the Sox’ acquisition of Toby Hall last month made Stewart expendable.

Lujan, who will be 23 next season, fits perfectly alongside Kenny Williams’ other recent acquisitions. The right-handed reliever brings serious heat (a fastball clocked as high as 96 or 97 mph), but has control issues: he walked 5.61 batters per nine innings last year at high A Bakersfield. That profile is not so dissimilar from those of David Aardsma, Nick Masset, Andrew Sisco, and, before last season, Matt Thornton. I’ve decided to call this type of pitcher a “SCUD,” after the Russian missiles brought into the American psyche during the Gulf War, because they too were powerful but inaccurate. Under this analogy, K-Will is the late Saddam Hussein, stockpiling SCUDs in the hopes of someday unleashing them on his enemies (in this case, the rest of the major leagues). Unlike Hussein’s power-crazy ambitions, however, this is one arms race I can get behind (even if it bets too heavily on Don Cooper’s magic).

Lujan has some things going for him beyond the heat — for his minor-league career, he’s given up just 0.55 homers per nine innings — but the fact that he has a (much) higher ceiling than Stewart is not my favorite part of this deal (although it’s certainly a positive). That accolade is reserved for the fact that this deal opened up a spot on the Sox’ 40-man roster. Now, while they technically don’t need to fill that vacancy any time soon, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the prelude to another move. Or, at least, I hope it is. Kenny, if you’re reading this (and I know you’re not), please, please use that spot to shore up the outfield, especially left.

Now, I’m not the begging type, so rather than just ask for something, I’m going to offer something in return; in this case, a specific player who could solve a number of the Sox’ problems: Craig Wilson. A converted catcher, and now, at age 30, a free agent, Wilson put up some pretty nice numbers in his time with the Pirates (2001 through this past July), before stumbling a bit in the Bronx last year (.212/.248/.365 in 104 at-bats). But what his career line of .265/.354/.480 doesn’t tell you is just how well he hits lefties: he’s a career .296/.395/.543 against them. That’s not just good — it’s great.

Wilson could platoon with Mackowiak in left, providing pretty decent production at the plate (if less than stellar work in the field). Using their platoon-splits over the past three seasons (because recent results tend to be more predictive), we’d probably be looking at production from left-field somewhere in the .275/.360/.450 range. Given the cost (Macko will make $2.75 million, and I think we could sign Wilson for about $3 million), that’s pretty good. Plus, against some lefties the Sox could use Pablo Ozuna in left-field, thereby allowing Wilson to DH in place of Jim Thome (I’m firmly in favor of always sitting him against southpaws) and Hall to play behind the plate. The difference between Ozuna, Wilson, and Hall against lefties, as compared to Mackowiak (or Scott Podsednik), Thome, and A.J. Pierzynski, is substantial. In all seriousness, it might be the difference between the Sox winning 95 games and making the playoffs and the Sox winning 88 and staying home in October.

Additionally, Wilson could lead off against lefties. He’s hardly the prototypical leadoff hitter, but a .395 OBP is a .395 OBP, and that’s really all that matters. This still doesn’t solve the issue of who would lead off against righties (perhaps Tadahito Iguchi and his .350 OBP?), but I’m not Superman; this would at least provide a nice platoon partner for Macko in left, give us a potent righty bat off the bench, and someone to lead off one-fourth to one-third of the time. Whaddaya say, Kenny?

We’re Not Good Enough For You?

Well, sometimes the Second City lives up to its name. Today, reliever Jeff Nelson signed a minor-league contract with the New York Yankees and immediately retired, thereby ending his 15-year career. The Sox gave Nelson a shot last year, allowing him to (briefly) rehab at AAA Charlotte and then trying him for 2 and two-thirds innings at the big-league level before shutting him down. So, it didn’t work out, but at least the Sox were willing to give a chance to a 39-year-old pitcher who hadn’t been effective for a few years. And for that, Nelson chose to spit in the team’s face by basically refusing to retire a Sock. Instead, he went out of his way to retire as a member of the Yankees, the team with which he won four World Series titles. Hmm…on second thought, I can’t say that I blame him. In actuality, I never really did — it’s just a slow news day.

Baseplodding

Dan Fox at Baseball Prospectus just released his 2006 team baserunning stats, and let’s just say that the Sox didn’t do all that well. Or well at all. Or even mediocrely. In fact, according to Fox’s stats, the Sox were by far the worst baserunning team in the majors last year.

The stats are broken down into four categories: advancing on hits (the most important, according to Fox), advancing on fly balls, advancing on ground outs, and an amalgam of stolen bases, times caught stealing, and pickoffs. Then they’re combined for an overall rating.

Of the four categories, the Sox were in the black for just one, and only marginally at that: in terms of advancing on fly balls, they earned a slight positive impact of 0.62 runs over the entire season. But while this figure is above the MLB average (0.063), it’s actually just below the MLB median (0.63). In other words, in the one category the Sox were OK in, they were just OK.

And the other categories? Ugh. The Sox lost a net of 2.34 runs when trying to advance on ground outs, whereas the average team gained 0.138 runs (the median was an even better 0.425 runs). Likewise, the Sox lost an ugly 9.29 runs in terms of steals, times caught stealing, and pickoffs, well below the MLB average loss of 5.98 and the fourth-worst figure in the game. (And yes, the MLB average is negative. Contrary to what people who call me a propellerhead say, trying to steal bases is simply not a positive prospect.)

But as bad as those two are, they pale in comparison to how the Sox did in terms of advancing on hits. The Sox lost 10.77 runs last year while trying to do so, by far the worst figure in the majors (Oakland was next at -8.71). The MLB average was -0.009 (or more or less break even), while the median was only slightly worse at -0.48. Quite simply, the Sox were terrible in this department, and it cost them.

The main culprits in this department were Paul Konerko (-3.86), A.J. Pierzynski (-2.69), Joe Crede (-2.44), Jim Thome (-1.11), and (surprisingly) Tadahito Iguchi (-1.01). Only three Sox players with significant playing time actually helped when trying to advance on hits — Scott Podsednik at 1.74, Pablo Ozuna at 1.16, and Brian Anderson at 0.33 — and even then Pods gave it all back (and more) by getting caught stealing 19 times and picked off three times.

Overall, the Sox just plain sucked on the basepaths in 2006, costing them a net of 21.78 runs, the worst showing in the majors (Toronto was second-worst at -15.82) and roughly 16 runs worse than the average (-5.78). They were thrown out trying to advance 14 times, tied for third highest since 2000, and with only three teams (and none in 2006) blundering more during that span.

So whose fault is all of this? Well, interestingly, probably not Joey Cora’s. Fox writes, “ChiSox fans who may be wondering whether new third base coach in 2006 Joey Cora was to blame should know that based on some preliminary research into the effect of third base coaches, Cora seems to have outperformed the personnel he had to work with. In other words, in baserunning opportunities over which he could have been said to have some influence, the team did slightly better in terms of theoretical runs than in other opportunities.” Well, I guess that’s good news, except for the fact that Cora will no longer be the Sox’ third-base coach. And who knows how Razor Shines will fare? (By the way, I hereby nominate Razor Shines as one of the greatest baseball names of all time. And it’s an impressive list.)

So if not Cora, then whom? Well, I think Ozzie and his “Let’s keep putting Podsednik out there even though he’s about as effective as the abstinence method” mentality might have something to do with it. But that’s difficult to tabulate, and really only matters in terms of stolen bases and times caught stealing. Ultimately, it really just comes down to the players themselves. We have a slow, plodding team, plain and simple.

What I wonder, however, is how much we gain by having such a team in terms of hitting. For instance, would the Sox have still hit .280/.342/.464 last year (or anything like it) if we had sported a fleet-footed team? Maybe — obviously the ideal is to have a team that gets on-base, mashes, and runs well — but probably not. The second- and third-worst baserunning teams in the AL last year were Toronto and Boston, and they hit .284/.348/.463 and .269/.351/.435, respectively. And on the other side of things, the two best baserunning teams in the AL last season — the Angels and Royals — hit just .274/.334/.425 and .271/.332/.411, respectively. There’s clearly a correlation between hitting and baserunning, and it’s a negative one. Quite simply, it’s a trade-off; if you want better baserunning, you usually have to give up something at the plate, and vice versa. It’s kind of like the conceived difference between Podsednik and Carlos Lee (even though in reality Lee’s just as good a baserunner, if not better).

Fox computes that baserunning accounts for about 15% of total offensive output, leaving the remaining 85% to batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and a smattering of other, smaller things. That’s a pretty good trade-off in the Sox’ favor (although it doesn’t admittedly take into consideration the very large effect that speed has on a team’s defense, especially in the outfield), and allows me to shrug off these baserunning figures without too much concern.